Cruxellaneous

Porter Stansberry: The U.S. stock market could now fall by half

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From Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest Premium:
 
Our government's current debt-fueled policies are unsustainable and creating a huge crisis.
 
The simple fact is, if our government were required to pay a fair market rate of interest on its debt… the interest payments alone would swallow up all of our tax revenue (and then some).
 
Sooner or later, that fact will overwhelm the smoke and mirrors and the chicanery of quantitative easing. Sooner or later, that fact will overwhelm the passions of the world's banks that keep 60% of their reserves in U.S. dollars. Sooner or later, that fact will overwhelm the popularity of the U.S. dollar as the basis of international trade.
 
And make no mistake… China has had good reason to negotiate bilateral trade and currency agreements over the last 18 months with every single major trading counterparty in the world.
 
At some point, the Chinese will unveil a complete convertibility of its currency, the yuan. And when that happens, what do you think will happen to the value of the U.S. dollar? What do you think will happen to the actual rate of interest on U.S. Treasury bonds, especially long-dated bonds?
 
All of those things will change because, as I said yesterday, the markets over time are weighing machines. And I guarantee you the passions of the crowd change over time. So the current pricing for equities in the United States is based on 18 years of earnings.
 
Facebook is trading at a valuation of around 100 years of earnings. But what is the value of all those future earnings if the value of the dollar crashes? What is the value of all those future earnings, 15 years', 17 years' worth of earnings, if instead of the long bond being 3%, it was 8%?
 
If you do the math, if you do the dividend discount models, and you compare it with the risk-free rate, you can see for yourself that evaluations of U.S. stocks could easily fall in half.
 
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More from Porter:
 
 
 
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