A good omen for October earnings trades
From Jeff Clark, Editor, Delta Report:
Trading a stock around its earnings report is like gambling.
It’s exciting. It’s fast action. And if you get the direction right, you can make a lot of money.
But if you get it wrong, then you can kiss your hard-earned bucks goodbye.
For the first 20 years of my career trading options, I loved to trade around earnings announcements. It was fast. It was exciting.
But when I finally took an honest look at the results of my earnings trades, I found it wasn’t very profitable. Oh, sure, I had some big winners – trades that made me 300% or more on my money in just a few days. But I had plenty of trades where I lost 100% overnight, too.
After adding all of these trades together – more than 200 trades over 20 years – it turned out I was barely breaking even. It certainly wasn’t worth the time and effort it took to research all the ideas and put all the trading strategies together.
So, I swore off earnings trades. As much as I enjoyed the action, I couldn’t justify putting in the effort for results that barely broke even.
But in the back of my head, I always thought, “There must be some way to make this work.”
For almost 10 years, I mostly watched the earnings action from the sidelines. Companies would report their numbers. The stocks would make a big move, either higher or lower. And I’d wonder if I would have gotten the direction right if I traded it.
It was painful to stay on the sidelines, thinking about how much money I could have made if I had been on the right side of those moves.
But in the few times during that period that I did dip my toe back into the earnings trading pool, the results were mixed, just like before.
About five years ago, though, I decided to make a concentrated effort to determine if there was a way to get the direction right. Was the market sending clues that I wasn’t seeing? Could I put together a formula, an algorithm that would tell me – ahead of time – the most probable direction for a stock after its earnings announcement?
For four years, I watched the companies of the S&P 500 as they traded around their earnings reports. I noted the volume, the consistency of the moves, the average percentage gain or loss, the option volume in the days before the announcement, the price of the options, the variation to historical premiums, and a whole host of other variables.
Throughout that time, I logged all of that information onto 17 different spreadsheets. Each spreadsheet contains the data for each of the variables. That data helps to determine how important each variable is in predicting the stock’s movement after an earnings announcement.
I then put all of those variables and percentages together and came up with an algorithm for an earnings trading system.
I started trading the system with my own money in April 2016. By April 2017, the system generated 35 total trades. 32 of those trades were profitable. A $1,000 investment in each of those trades created profits of $17,547.
So, a few months ago, I started sharing these trades with my Delta Report subscribers.
We’ve executed seven trades so far. Six of them have been profitable – including an 80% gain in one day on Toll Brothers (TOL), a 100% gain in one day on Guess (GES), and another 80% one-day gain on our most recent trade in Oracle (ORCL).
It’s that most recent trade in ORCL that has me quite excited about the potential for this upcoming earnings season.
You see, on average, the system only generates about two or three earnings trades each month. Sometimes more, sometimes less, but on average about two or three. Last October, though, the system produced eight trades for me.
That’s an active month. And it was hugely profitable, too.
Seven of the eight trades were winners. I made 150% on Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), 186% on Intel (INTC), and a whopping 400% in one day on Sonic (SONC).
The only loss last October was a 1.32% decline on some put options I bought on Lam Research (LRCX).
If we get similar action this October, then I expect our earnings system trades will be quite profitable. And this season has already started off well… with a fast 80% gain on ORCL several days ago.
That’s a good omen.
Best regards and good trading,
P.S. My trading experience goes back three decades. And the strategies I’ve used in that time were so successful, I was able to retire at age 42.
These days, I spend most of my time at my California home. My neighbors think I’m growing marijuana… or flipping penny stocks.
But what I’ve been working on is far more lucrative: this earnings algorithm. It’s brought my subscribers huge returns in short periods of time, like 100% in less than 24 hours. Click here to learn more. (This video comes down at noon on Friday)